Umair Haque / Bubblegeneration
umair haque  


Design principles for 21st century companies, markets, and economies. Foreword by Gary Hamel. Coming January 4th. Pre-order at Amazon.

Monday, August 16, 2004


Roach has a fairly disturbing take on the macro picture:

"...By way of comparison, the last time the US had a �foreign trade problem� was in the latter half of the 1980s; back then, the trade deficit (as measured on a national income accounts basis) peaked out at 3.2% of GDP in the second quarter of 1987.

Needless to say, that was not the most tranquil of times in financial markets. As America�s external imbalance widened in mid-1987, the dollar came under sharp downward pressure and US interest rates were pushed higher. Those were the classic manifestations of a current account adjustment that many (myself included) believe were at the heart of the stock market crash of October 1987. "

I've been discussing this with some macro buddies, and they've pushed this line on me recently. It's not good to hear this echoed at the top of their community. I think the macro picture is pretty bad - but not this bad - because credit is better and fundamentals (ie earnings, cashflow, etc) are strong - but I'm not old enough to remember what really happened in 87. Time for a bit of quick research...

Am I the only one that appreciates the dark irony in the fact that Google's IPO -everyone's great white hope - is timed at the worst possible moment of the last 2 years? Ha ha.

-- umair // 1:43 PM // 0 comments


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