All Your Irrational Exuberance Are Belong To Us
A note on my
latest ppt, I've just finally had the time to trawl through some of the discussion surrounding it.
It's distinctly
not meant to be a justification for assumptions or projections of unbounded poly/exponential/combinatorial growth. I should have explained this more carefully when I released it.
In fact, it's the opposite; it's meant to be a tool you can use to evaluate whether your portfolio companies or businesses
are generating 2.0 economies along all three dimensions (distributed, viral, network) with a fair degree of quantitative rigor.
That is to say, growth assumptions for most 2.0 plays will (should)
already have these economies factored in and discounted, in the usual venture/M&A scenarios; you can then evaluate performance on all three dimensions, and have a fairly good idea of how returns are scaling (or not).
Unfortunately, I think a fair number of people got this backwards, and think my ppt essentially an argument for projecting unbounded growth - it's not, trawl the archives, and you'll see I've argued against this many (many) times.
More on this later.