Umair Haque / Bubblegeneration
umair haque  


Design principles for 21st century companies, markets, and economies. Foreword by Gary Hamel. Coming January 4th. Pre-order at Amazon.

Saturday, October 08, 2005

All Your Irrational Exuberance Are Belong To Us

A note on my latest ppt, I've just finally had the time to trawl through some of the discussion surrounding it.

It's distinctly not meant to be a justification for assumptions or projections of unbounded poly/exponential/combinatorial growth. I should have explained this more carefully when I released it.

In fact, it's the opposite; it's meant to be a tool you can use to evaluate whether your portfolio companies or businesses are generating 2.0 economies along all three dimensions (distributed, viral, network) with a fair degree of quantitative rigor.

That is to say, growth assumptions for most 2.0 plays will (should) already have these economies factored in and discounted, in the usual venture/M&A scenarios; you can then evaluate performance on all three dimensions, and have a fairly good idea of how returns are scaling (or not).

Unfortunately, I think a fair number of people got this backwards, and think my ppt essentially an argument for projecting unbounded growth - it's not, trawl the archives, and you'll see I've argued against this many (many) times.

More on this later.

-- umair // 10:56 PM // 0 comments


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