Thursday, November 01, 2007
Research Note: OpenSocial vs Facebook, Socratic Edition
You know, focusing on the numbers myopically is not thinking strategically.
HitWise has great data about OpenSocial vs Facebook, but the conclusions many are drawing from it are very, very premature.
More often than not, numbers-driven thinking - without a true understanding of causes, effects, and interdependencies - leads us deeply into strategic error.
Let's step back and think more deeply about it.
What the value of a platform without a killer app?
Because that's the real assumption we're making when we get hysterical about Facebook vs Google purely on the basis of today's numbers.
More to the point - if you believe the hype is even a bit justified, you believe a killer app (note - app, not ads) will surface.
Which, in turn, begs the question: will it be plastic, or specific?
That is, will it be dependent on graph/platform/profile/etc data from a single network, or from many networks?
If you understand what network scale economies really are, it's almost inevitably the latter.
So who's in a dominant position - Google, or Facebook?
Does competing for openness make sense now?
There is no "killer app" for either platform.
I assume one will come.
Reminds me a little of NES vs. PS vs. Xbox.
Maybe I'm missing something that the previous commenter understands, but I'd say that Google's killer app is Search.