Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Why HD-DVD And Blu-Ray Are (Strategically) Obsolete
So...should you care about the so-called HD-DVD/Blu-ray standards war?
Why not? Because it won't make a bit of difference to the larger outcomes players along the value chain realize - whether content, hardware, distribution, etc. In fact, it's just a waste of your time - though it's geekily sexy, from an economic pov, these competitive dynamics are already thoroughly obsolete.
Standards wars with heavy fixed costs and closed platforms are deeply dominated - and deeply toxic. Today's economics are vastly different - and it's exactly vaporizing closed platforms and fixed costs that's where the real value is.
If these guys were really interested in revolutionizing their creaking, industrial-era business designs, they'd be playing very different games; they'd be competing through openness and hyperefficiency, not coercion and control.
But they're not - they're just interested in propping up dead business models with marginal productivity gains from increasingly onerous capital investments. And that, of course, is a sucker's bet.
So until the game changes - ignore it. It's just noise, because even if it earns video players a few more years of marginal profitability, it certainly won't pull them out of deep, enduring strategy decay.
You might find my post entitled "Skating to where the DVD player will go" interesting: http://www.mathoda.com/archives/168
my god, who are you umair? this is fabulous writing and thinking... no one talks like this in the official tech/business world...
but it is how it is, reality is like this now....
i assume you are the owner of the blog.. now i will look through it...
and be back