Umair Haque / Bubblegeneration
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Design principles for 21st century companies, markets, and economies. Foreword by Gary Hamel. Coming January 4th. Pre-order at Amazon.


 
Friday, July 23, 2010

The Great Transition














A fantastically scary chart from Tim Duy - and a very nice analysis to accompany it.

What you might read this chart to say is several things - my take. First, that we're failing utterly to renew the industrial base, and seed the industries of the 21st century. Second, that this is really is a Great Transition - and that the jobs that died can't and won't be resurrected because they've been shifted, more or less permanently, elsewhere. Third, given corporate cash hoards, that today's CEOs are pretty much bereft of ideas about what to invest in, and why. And fourth and last, that the problem of global excess capacity has yet - despite the difficulties we've already faced - barely surfaced at all.

All four, of course, imply a new Depression, replete with deflation, stagnation, disinvestment, and mega-shakeout. There is no recovery because it wasn't a simple recession - but end of one economic era, and the painful, clamorous birth of another.

-- umair // 11:24 PM // 0 comments


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