Umair Haque / Bubblegeneration
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Design principles for 21st century companies, markets, and economies. Foreword by Gary Hamel. Coming January 4th. Pre-order at Amazon.

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

The Lost Quarter Century

From a very interesting analysis by the San Francisco Fed (the red line's an indicator of aggregate expectations of another recession).

Of course, you shouldn't need numbers to tell you this. It should be plain to see for anyone not cooped up on Mars. On Planet Earth, the global economy has had major, burning problems for the last half-decade.

And though you might have heard plenty of spin and hype coming from the banking lobby, central banks, treasury secretaries, and other assorted folks, the truth is simple.

We haven't done anything to fix the problems (toxic debt, ruinous incentives, broken institutions, a surfeit of higher order capital, invisible, tuned-out shareholders and empty equity, and, of course, the ultimate result of all that, thin value). Not a single meaningful thing. So, of course, to imagine that we'd wake up one day and they'd magically be gone - well, that was a daydream.

Reality is uglier. This is, not to put too fine a point on it, an instant replay of Japan, circa 1990. And we're headed exactly for another lost decade.

The only question now is: how many are we prepared to lose?

-- umair // 12:20 AM // 0 comments


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