-
Strategies for a discontinuous future.












Thursday, June 03, 2004
 


Microsoft vs iTunes is starting to make headlines. Ignore it.

We know that MS has already won - because Apple had a chance to fundamentally alter the industry's economics and business model, and failed to do either. iTunes is the same old obsolete model tacked onto a prettier front end - Apple's (unfortunately) squandered it's massive opportunity to build a new model around the discontinuities in consumer preferences and technology that are creating new economics for all media industries.

Because Apple didn't build a new model using isolating mechanisms to build protected resources, all bets are off. In fact, my predictions for this market have already come true: massive hypercompetition leading to intense price wars. Prices are currently being (desperately) being propped up by suppliers (major labels) - but this will change as soon as a shakeout occurs further down the value chain, and distributors can exert more intense pressure of their own because buyer power is concentrated (read: MS).

Now that all things are equal, since MS has far more valuable and scarce resources to leverage, it will necessarily gain a large advantage over Apple, barring seriously discontinuous competition - which seems unlikely.

-- umair // 10:36 PM //


Comments:
Post a Comment
search



new


input

due diligence
ventureblog
a vc
techblurbs
tj's weblog
venture chronicles
terranova
the big picture
gigaom
venchar
bill burnham
babak nivi
n-c thoughts
paidcontent
techdirt
slashdot
london gsb
mefi
boingboing
blort
hardwax
betalounge

ing
morgan
chicago fed
dallas fed
ny fed
imf
world bank
nouriel roubini

portfolio
contact

mail.
uhaque (dot) mba2003 (at) london (dot) edu

skype.
umair.haque

atom feed

technorati profile

blog archives