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Strategies for a discontinuous future.












Friday, August 13, 2004
 


SenderID updates. Blah, blah, blah.

Look, this is a classic case of MS leveraging it's resources to exploit an innovation hole - just like the one Netscape left. I know that sounds heretical considering the amount of $$ that's been pumped into antispam plays, but let's face it: they're a pretty homogeneous set of solutions.

Yeah, of course MS is going to extend their offering via proprietary xyz's and co-opt the market. That's the entire reason they're doing this - so they can then charge a nice fat toll, use it lock-down their Windows-as-service model, etc, etc. The sky is literally the limit when you have monopoly power over identity in any digital consumer market. But you already know that.

The dirty secret no one's talking about is that this is going to accelerate the fragmentation of the Net. It will create a Net for those who can pay the MS tax, and those who can't. That is a terrible thing - not just from a social pov, but also from a strategic pov - the pie will suddenly, massively shrink.

Of course, this leaves a nice gaping hole for Linux to vaporize the MS death star. Will they care? Nah, MS's strategic intent has never been long-term wealth creation, it's always been short-term value extraction. I can practically hear the drooling in Redmond already. What I should also hear is the drooling from radical innovators who can sense the huuuge opening this creates for them - but I don't. Which is troublesome.

-- umair // 1:55 AM //


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