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Strategies for a discontinuous future.












Tuesday, January 31, 2006
 


On The Wal-Marting of Google (How to Sell Out)

Prediction: Google will slowly realize that the effect of not making internal earnings forecasts public is simply to amplify the volatility of it's share price. I think by the end of this year, Google will issue forecasts...and complete the cycle of buying into the very structures it was trying so hard to disrupt yesteryear (viz, censoring results in China).

That said, to borrow Mark P's killer analogy for a sec, Google should now be to you guys...kind of...boring. We know the game; disrupting advertising, market by market, using the same old business algorithm (make plastic --> make liquid --> open access).

No, Google isn't going to get Netscaped; not least for the reason that, unlike Netscape, Google has a huge share of very, very profitable (and fast-growing) market.

Google is going to basically become more and more mundane - basically, focus on cutting deals to ensure access to new markets. The occasional radical innovation, like Gubuntu and Google Office, will pop out every now and then. But still...

Let's try and find some new things to talk about - like Publishing 2.0, or [your bright idea here].

-- umair // 11:22 PM //


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