/ Strategies for a discontinuous future / Selected work 2004-2009 /

2007 Markets, Networks, & Communities
2008 The Macropocalypse & Edge Competencies
2009 The Great Compression, Smart Growth & Constructive Capitalism

Grab this swicki from eurekster.com

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

The Obama Endgame

So. At last like the ten get-togethers I've been to, the big question has been the same: (when) will Barack Obama be assassinated?

Yes, it's an awful thing to discuss. But the argument's as simple as it is compelling (and admit it, you've discussed it lately too :)

At this point, his momentum is unstoppable. But he's as unstoppable as he is dangerous - to every vested interest in the universe, from lobbyists, to dictators, to corpocracies.

As Daniel Noriega recently said - Obama is leading what's essentially a revolutionary movement.

And that, for my money, makes assassination a distinctly likely event - from a strategic pov, more likely, in fact, than an Obama presidency.

If only there was an Intrade contract...

Now, please don't misread this to mean I want to see Obama get offed. Far from it - I think he's the closest thing we're ever gonna get to JFK meets MLK.

The parallels are striking. Those were the last two guys who wanted to revolutionize the country's DNA - who threatened multiple vested interests at once. And we know how - what a coincidence - both their stories tragically ended.

-- umair // 4:00 PM //


pimpin' public paranoia or more likely radical cross-hairs will the first job of the neocon-likudnic$

kristols standard's been a bit quiet wrt Barrack F. Kennedy...

08ama all the way baby...
// Anonymous Anonymous // 5:05 PM

And here I was thinking there's something distinctly sinister about my circle of friends and I discussing the same subject......!

We came to the conclusion that now, more than ever before, people are connecting dots going backward(..to JFK, MLK..for instance), and voices like Obama are beginning to sound less idealistic, increasingly realistic, and seemingly unparalleled in rationale.

But here's the thing: corporations, lobbyists are inherent in our DNA. They are, ultimately, our creations. And no single individual can do a DNA-flush on the entire world.

We're all still bloody greedy, we invest in gains...not growth.., we lobby for our vested interests...(love thy neighbor? What's that?!), and we have created ourselves a fine monster that is able to interchangeably shield itself under the guises of 'democracy', 'capitalism', 'government', and every other socio-political institution we've dreamt up.

So after our seventh pitcher, we came to the conclusion that Obama's assassination isn't our big worry. We're just waiting to see how much we let our world rot, before we start 'fessing up to our failures, en masse.

And then, as we "silently laugh at our own cenotaph, out of the caverns of the rain, like a child from the womb, like a ghost from the tomb, we will arise and build it all up again."
(...paraphrased from 'the cloud's song, by P.B. Shelley).
// Blogger preetam mukherjee // 5:44 PM

I wouldn't be so sure that he will make the sweeping changes that you suggest will so disruptive. At any rate, he will need legislative cooperation to do anything.

I think this apocalyptic prognostication is over the top.
// OpenID awilensky // 6:25 PM

I admit that this comes from a political perspective informed more by Hunter S. Thompson than anyone else, but here's why I don't think Obama will be assassinated:

I think the reactionaries are just now starting to wake up from a long hibernation. Some of them might smell the revolution in the air, but I think (A) they're skeptical that Obama is a revolutionary, and (B) they're not organized enough at the moment to stir an atmosphere conducive to assassination.

When Nixon got elected and started doing his intensely conservative thing, the reactionaries started relaxing. Maybe they had a tiny little scare with Jimmy Carter, but they solved that politically. The country has been going in their direction for a long time now, and I think they're pretty confident that they've changed the rules enough to keep things going their way for a while longer.

So, my prediction is that one of 3 things happens:

1. Obama is not a revolutionary, and the reactionaries go happily back to sleep.
2. Obama is a revolutionary, but the system (the culture, the DNA, the stuff that Preetam's post above mentions) stifles him.
3. Obama is a revolutionary; he overcomes the system; the reactionaries are not well enough organized to counter him; and real CHANGE (cultural DNA change) happens.

Maybe I'm crazy. Maybe Hunter S. Thompson is crazy. Maybe I'm straining to connect an atmosphere conducive to assassination too closely to Nixonian cultural conservatism. But it's one way of looking at things I guess.
// Blogger Jake de Grazia // 6:43 PM

Easy just go short 2008.pres.Obama here http://markets.rasmussenreports.com/aav2/menu.jsp

Trading at 54.9 I'm long at 19.5. And short Hillary...big time.

It's really really tough to kill someone and get away with it. Even more so if that person is a Presidential candidate.

Anyway Obama is to Rabin aswho is to Bibi?
// Anonymous Anonymous // 7:55 PM

hey guys,

thx for the very interesting comments, and apologies to those of you who find this disturbing.

i do too, but i think sometimes it's important to discuss hard topics.

i agree that obama may be a faux revolutionary, he may never change the DNA of Washington, etc.

but what i think is interesting is about him is his perspective - he understands that it's DNA that's the problem.

usually, the last thing politicians talk about is DNA - they just talk policies; but policy is a largely a function of DNA.

as for this subject being over the top - come on, you can't be serious. i'm not exactly a liberal, but there's very clearly a hundred year history of (institutionalized) violence against leftwards political movements in the states.

yes, it's an awful subject. but from a strategic pov, we're kidding ourselves if we don't think this is a scenario whose probability increases discontinuously with every primary won.

finally, anon, i hope you went long in volume, that was a seriously good trade :)
// Blogger umair // 11:55 PM

obama is not a revolutionary, he is an establishment hack, hence the love he gets from the mainstream media. obama is all about giving foreign aid, which is another way of saying he is all for taxing people and giving those tax dollars to multinational corporations. check out his relationships with aipac and zbigniew brezinski.

in the US, the only non-establishment, for the people presidential candidates we had were ron paul, dennis kucinich, and mike gravel. it is not a coincidence that these candidates received the least coverage in the mainstream media.

there is a revolution going on, but it is the ron paul revolution and the 9/11 truth movement, and it is still being ignored. but of course, revolutions are always ignored at first, because they are too threatening. in time, though, people see it as liberating.
// Anonymous kid mercury // 1:03 PM

It's a fair topic. There are 2 real areas which, constitutionally, the president can affect. The first is foreign policy (which Americans are traditionally loathe to discuss). The second is nominations and appointments to government which can directly affect the DNA of the courts and the executive branch.

The problem with Obama's promise to affect the DNA is that he can do nothing to affect the DNA of the legislative branch. In other words, he cannot deliver through law. The best he can do is use the bully pulpit and hope that the arm twisting works or galvanize the electorate into vast changes within the Congress.

If that were to happen, then I'd expect that the possibility of assassination would rise exponentially. At the moment it's more likely that the reactionaries think that the fix is in, as jake noted above.
// Blogger B.D. // 1:21 PM

doubts on assassination, he's not black enough for the rednecks to worry too much, and too much of a company man to suffer an insider job

i suggest image is more superficial than the dna shorthand you use

as to the dna of the political system, not broken, but fossilized... it is based on old thinking, and creative types simply bypass or even ignore it
// Blogger gregory // 4:27 PM

Security breach at Obama rally -- ordered by US Secret Service...
// Blogger Ted // 4:52 AM

Well, here ya go:


"Security details at Barack Obama's rally Wednesday stopped screening people for weapons at the front gates more than an hour before the Democratic presidential candidate took the stage at Reunion Arena."
// Blogger Gautam // 5:13 AM

Oh, puh-lease!!

I contrubuted to Obama's campaign, but aren't we a little too old to be attributing such messianic qualities to a mere senator? He's a corruptible and selfish human being only slightly better than the other candidates.

And this sort of orgiastic christ-making will be the quickest way to sour the public and make sure he *doesn't* get elected. Why would he be assasainated when groupie kooks like this will foil his campaign anyway?
// Blogger j allen // 4:06 PM

It is too hard to say Obama is at the end of game as he is gaining popularity.



Wide Circles
// Anonymous sandip // 12:15 PM
Post a Comment


Recent & upcoming sessions:

Supernova 2007 (video)




due diligence
a vc
tj's weblog
venture chronicles
the big picture
bill burnham
babak nivi
n-c thoughts
london gsb

chicago fed
dallas fed
ny fed
world bank
nouriel roubini


uhaque (dot) mba2003 (at) london (dot) edu


atom feed

technorati profile

blog archives