Umair Haque / Bubblegeneration

Friday, August 08, 2008

Abnormal

Scott has a point, but I think that Facebook isn't exactly "normal" in terms of expectations, influence, or liquidity options, the secondary markets involved in what's "normal" aren't often made relatively open, the shares traded in them don't go at a >100% discount, and my guess (though the info is opaque) is they're not largely sold directly to private equity, etc...

Look. I think a very thin market in Facebook shares at a $15 bil valuation might be OK. But a larger, more open one at a $5b valuation kind of sends not a great signal. The signal is that Facebook might go straight to some kind of restructuring - which is really the point of the post.

Forget what's "normal" for a second - because there is no meaningful statistical "normal" in industries like venture. Just think about the strategic logic for a second.

Now, I'm not saying I'm "right" - the post is there for us to discuss what Facebook's options are.

-- umair // 8:17 AM // 0 comments

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