Monday, July 09, 2007
Facebook IPO Notes
Valleywag digs some dirt on an impending Facebook IPO.
Paul K called this last month.
I'm not sure I buy it though. Does Facebook have a real, sustainable, powerful business model yet - one which can really scale? The market will drink the kool-aid - but I doubt it.
The point is - ads on social nets are seriously underperforming at the moment. It's unlikely that naive ads will be the b-model that lets them capture a share of the massive value they have created. Rather, it's when they revolutionize today's stale, inert adscape is when real (top-line) growth will occur.
I'm not sure that Facebook is quite there yet - though it can certainly keep tapping large pools of dumb money who don't want to see (aren't so worried about) a huge/traditional return on ad investment.
Spot on Umair. "Social nets' have done much to totally redo the content landscape the past few years, in radical ways. Advertising has lagged, not in innovative tools and technologies, but in ways to think about new value being created. I think social nets are radical in that they re-envision the user (or actor) as the central participant in the new world. Ad technologies need to do the same.
yeah but if they have the audience plus public-market currency, arguably all they have to do is wait for a startup with a truly disruptive social networking ad model then "pull an overture".
surely facebook can develop some kind of subs-based business model, based on premium features/ freemium?